Miles J. Stoner, @StockHollywood

Dallas, Texas

5.10.2010

Preview: May 11

Milestone Financial Investments
I have not been holding over night as of right now based on market volatility. I just dont want to wake up and be up a tremendous amount or down the same amount so I've been short selling and scalping stocks throughout the day.  My favorite play right now is the earnings momentum after a good report comes out I typically will trade the stock many times during the day, usually letting it run up and then shorting. 
  1. DF - 10.43 - shorted this one a few times today, it is down on news of private labels gaining ground on them. Looking for a continuance of this tomorrow. 
  2. DENN - 3.50 - flat; just beats with Q1 results.
  3. AIG/PA - 10.00 - Fairholme Capital Management, already one of the largest private shareholders in bailed-out insurer American International Group Inc, bought more than 10 million additional shares in April. The investment firm, run by mutual-fund manager Bruce Berkowitz, now owns about 25.4 million shares, or about 19% of the company's outstanding stock, according to a regulatory filing Monday. The total stake is valued at more than $1 billion, based on Monday's closing price of $40.98.
  4. MBI - 9.33 - -6.1%; swings to Q1 loss.
    1. MBI held a mostly downside range of 9.35 to 8.90 through the first-half of after-hours trade. It weakened into the mid-session and early second-half, dropping to levels between 8.80 and a low of 8.50. Buyers pushed in some decent upside support off the lows up to 8.70 before a late pop higher to the 8.90 mark, deeper into the second-half. A pre-market open Tuesday may have potential near 8.90 to 8.70. MBI has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 5 of the last 11 quarters tracked in our database. In three of those five events, 60.0% of the time, MBI followed-through in the same direction by the close of the next day's regular session compared to the Extended Hours "effective close". When it followed-through, the price closed further in the same direction on average by 8.5% (in 3 events) from the "effective close". 40.0% of the time (2 out of 5 times) the stock reversed in the opposite direction by the close of the next day's regular session compared to the Extended Hours "effective close". When it reversed, the price closed in the opposite direction on average by 15.8% (in 2 events) from the "effective close". The consistent upside liquidity that flowed into MBI tonight off the low up toward 8.70 would have us favoring the stock's reversal events, particularly considering the hefty percentage turnaround the issue has seen in the past. Longs may want to watch for possible entry points near 8.50 to 8.70, levels that could see bumps back into the higher 8s.
  5. LDK - 6.96 - +5.8%; beats Q1 estimates, guides above Street.
  6. PCLN - 220.50 - -11.8%; misses with results.
    1. PCLN was hammered lower off the company's earnings report, diving from 247.20 to an early evening low of 218. It steadied between 224.66 and a mid-session low of 217.65 through the bulk of its night trade. After-hours indications would suggest PCLN records a potential pre-market open Tuesday near 222.50 to 220. PCLN shows a tendency to widen its next day share movement following an extended-hours earnings release, doing so for 19 of the past 25 quarters. In the near-term, the stock is also showing that pattern, widening its share move three times in the most recent four quarters. Looking deeper into the performance data, the stock has recorded downside extended-hours trade following 10 of the quarters we've tracked. It widened that extended-hours downside move in the following regular session in five of those events. While the historical data is mixed following an earnings-driven after-hours decline, we're inclined to follow the broader widening trend and look for a potential short opportunity on PCLN Tuesday. Sellers were aggressive tonight from 226.59 to the 224.66 to 223.25 range, levels shorts may want to eye for possible entry points that could see further weakness into the lower 220s, or below.
  7. CRUS - 11.98 - Up to 13.03 after hours.
  8. LDK - 6.96 - advanced in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance.
    1. LDK jumped through the 7.20 level to an early evening high of 7.55 before settling between 7.29 and 7.45 through the bulk of its after-hours action. A pre-market open Tuesday may have potential near 7.30 to 7.40. LDK has recorded an earnings-driven upside move in five of the last 11 quarters tracked in our database. 20.0% of the time (1 out of 5 times) the stock followed-through in the same direction by the close of the next day's regular session compared to the Extended Hours "effective close". When it followed-through, the price closed further in the same direction on average by 6.3% (in 1 events) from the "effective close". 80.0% of the time (4 out of 5 times) the stock reversed in the opposite direction by the close of the next day's regular session compared to the Extended Hours "effective close". When it reversed, the price closed in the opposite direction on average by 8.0% (in 4 events) from the "effective close". The strong reversal pattern doesn't bode well for longs tomorrow, but considering some rather solid upside support in tonight's trade, we suspect there may be room to play both sides of the trade on Tuesday. Early longs may want to watch for potential entry points near 7.20 to 7.35, an area that held as a consistent floor support tonight and where there may be room to catch some pops back into the 7.40s. On the short side, the 7.55 to 7.50 range developed as a tentative ceiling tonight. Shorts may want to move to the sidelines early in the day to see if this level holds against any early upside tests. If it does, then there may be opportunities to play weakness back into the 7.40s to 7.20s.
  9. UPSIDE MOVERS:
    1. TRGL: 7.89 to 9.60
    2. EMKR: 1.16 to 1.45
    3. AGO: 19.55 to 20.96
    4. VISN: 3.51 to 3.93
    5. LDK: 6.83 to 7.55 
    6. WINN: 11.80 to 12.99
    7. LM: 29.50 to 30.77
  10. DOWNSIDE MOVERS:
    1. AET: 29.46 to 29.31
    2. PCLN: 249.80 to 2317.65
    3. FLR: 48.96 to 45.95
    4. JAZZ: 8.70 to 8.25
    5. SCG: 38.22 to 37.22
    6. MBI: 9.39 to 8.48
    7. NUAN: 17.40 to 16.27