Miles J. Stoner, @StockHollywood

Dallas, Texas

5.19.2010

Preview May 20

Milestone Financial Investments 
Hang Seng is down again 
  1. As many as 20 bidders are interested in buying U.S. software company Novell Inc (NOVL:$6.03,00$0.21,003.61%) , which has put itself up for sale and is this week accepting bids, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. 
    • Most or all of the companies expected to make serious bids are private equity firms
    • rejected a $2 billion takeover offer from investment fund and shareholder Elliott Associates, calling its offer of $5.75 a share inadequate
    • I'm planning on longing this in the pre-market and letting the war begin.
  2. Autodesk (ADSK:$30.35,00$0.20,000.66%) : The initial after-hours move launched the stock on its way to an early high at 31.69. Selling there kicked in to push the issue back to a largely confined range of 31.30-31.60 before a fresh round of selling drove the issue back to 31.80. An open around 31.60 looks likely for early Thursday. ADSK is a mixed performer after earnings releases. It has widened its after-hours performance the next day following an earnings event in 14 of the last 25 quarters. In the near-term; over the past year, the stock has widened its evening move in the following regular session in three of the last four quarters. Looking deeper into the performance data, ADSK has recorded an earnings-driven extended-hours gain in 13 of the 25 quarters MidnightTrader has tracked, and in eight of those events, 62% of the time, the stock has seen a more aggressive next-day regular session gain. On the downside, ADSK has recorded an earnings-driven extended-hours decline in 12 of the 25 quarters we've followed, widening its downside move six times, reversing direction five times, and once ending flat with its evening move.  Price: 31.55, Change: +1.20, Percent Change: +3.9
    1. For longs, any revisit of the 30.75 to 31 area could pose an attractive buying target. 
    2. For shorts, the late evening ceiling around 31.50 to 31.60 may offer a possible selling opportunity.
  3. Hot Topic (HOTT:$6.53,00$-0.13,00-1.95%) : Stock churned initially from 6.48 to 6.54 before triggering a sharp decline from the 6.55 to 6.47 area, down to the 5.95-6.00 area, where the stock drifted for much of the session. An open near 5.90 to 6.00 looks likely. HOTT is mixed in its follow-up regular-hours trading following an evening earnings report; it's followed through with more aggressive next-day movement in 13 of 24 quarters. In the near-term, the stock has twice widened its evening move three times and twice narrowed its move over the last five quarters. Price: 5.93, Change: -0.60, Percent Change: -9.2
    1. For shorts, any morning move back toward 6.40 may present a favorable selling opportunity.
  4. Shares of Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT:$13.02,00$0.08,000.62%) shed 0.2% to $13, continuing to seesaw between losses and gains. The chip equipment maker swung to second-quarter profit of $264 million, or 20 cents a share. A year ago, it lost $255 million, or 19 cents a share. Revenue rose to $2.3 billion from $1.02 billion. Adjusted income at Applied Materials was 22 cents a share. Analysts were looking for earnings of 21 cents a share at Applied Materials, on revenue of $2.2 billion, according to a consensus survey by FactSet Research.
  5. Outside of quarterly results, shares of VeriSign Inc. (VRSN:$27.99,00$-0.24,00-0.85%) picked up 2.6% to $28.73 in scant volume after Symantec Corp. said it will purchase VeriSign's identity and authentication business for about $1.28 billion in cash. The transaction is expected to finalize in 60 to 90 days.
  6. PetSmart (PETM:$32.34,00$-0.19,00-0.58%) reports Q1 EPS up $0.46 vs $0.37 a year earlier and beating the Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate for $0.43.  For Q2, the company anticipates comparable store sales in the low- to mid-single digits and earnings per share of $0.33 to $0.37. The Street is at $0.36.
  7. Shares of Aruba Networks (ARUN:$11.57,00$-0.26,00-2.20%) were up in after-hours trading after the company beat fiscal third quarter earnings estimates. Aruba shares were up 2.85%, or $0.33, to $11.90 in after-hours trading.  Price: 11.90, Change: +0.33, Percent Change: +2.85
  8. Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP:$46.09,00$0.34,000.74%) reported Q1 net income of $1.19 a share, up 21% from $0.98 a year ago. Sales for the first quarter increased 8.7% to $1.83 billion. A Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate put the company's Q1 net at $1 a share. Price: 47.09, Change: +1.81, Percent Change: +3.93.
  9. Limited Brands Inc. (LTD:$24.49,00$0.02,000.08%) said adjusted EPS for the first quarter was $0.25 compared with EPS of $0.01 in the prior year. Analysts were looking for EPS of $0.19.  Price: 23.48, Change: -1.01, Percent Change: -4.1
  10. Heartland Payment Systems (HPY:$17.02,00$0.00,000.00%) will fund up to $41.4 million of alternative recovery offers in a settlement with MasterCard Worldwide (MA) related to a 2008 Heartland security breach.
  11. GT Solar International Inc. (SOLR:$5.31,00$-0.13,00-2.39%) posted fourth-quarter net income of 23 cents share, which beat the analyst mean estimate of 19 cents a share as well as the year-ago figure of 8 cents. Revenue was $194.7 million, above the Street view of $183 million. The company also updated its fiscal year 2011 revenue and EPS guidance to the upper end of its previous range with revenue of $550 million to $600 million and fully diluted earnings per share of $0.55 to $0.65.
    Price: 5.55, Change: +0.24, Percent Change: +4.52.
  12.  VPHM insiders bot 12million shares @ 12.9
  13. China Techfaith Wireless Communication Technology Limited (CNTF:$2.26,00$-0.04,00-1.74%) , were up to 2.41 after hours, earnings were 13cents / share.
  14. Aruba Networks Inc.'s (ARUN:$11.57,00$-0.26,00-2.20%) fiscal third-quarter loss narrowed slightly as it continued to sign up a high number of new customers for higher-margin services.
  15. NetEase.com Inc.'s (NTES:$31.11,00$-0.22,00-0.70%) first-quarter earnings rose 8.5%, as the Chinese online video-game company's sales soared higher as it started making money on the hugely popular World of Warcraft again. down to 29.15 after hours. 
  16. Symantec Corp. (SYMC:$15.63,00$-0.32,00-2.01%) has agreed to purchase VeriSign Inc.'s (VRSN:$27.99,00$-0.24,00-0.85%) identity and authentication business for $1.28 billion in an effort to round out its information-protection business.
  17. Synopsys Inc. (SNPS:$21.80,00$-0.16,00-0.73%) said Wednesday its fiscal second-quarter profit declined 18% on lower margins as sales rose slightly.
    Earnings for the software company topped its guidance. The company forecast third-quarter earnings of 36 cents to 38 cents on revenue of $330 million to $ 338 million, while analysts estimated 40 cents and $334.9 million, respectively, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters.
  18. ETF's
    1. TZA - bear small cap
    2. FAZ - bear financial
    3. UCO - crude oil
UPSIDE MOVERS:
VRSN: 27.94 to 28.81
ADSK: 30.05 to 31.69
AAP: 45.88 to 48.52
GYMB: 42.08 to 44.70
ARUN: 11.32 to 12.26
SOLR: 5.29 to 5.65
DOWNSIDE MOVERS:
LTD: 23.20 to 24.63
PETM: 31.20 to 32.58
SYMC: 15.58 to 16.07
MA: 200 to 209.74

IPO
Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF:$5.04,00$0.5300,11.75%) (the "Company") announced today that it has been approved for listing on the NASDAQ Global Market under the symbol " TLF." Trading on the NASDAQ Global Market is expected to commence on June 2, 2010. The Company's common stock will continue to trade on the NYSE Amex until the market close on June 1, 2010.

Political Agenda:
 In a setback for the Obama administration, Senate Democrats failed to muster enough votes on Wednesday to end debate on the biggest overhaul of financial regulation since the 1930s, delaying a vote on passage.
But analysts still expect the legislation eventually to pass.

A group of lawmakers will recommend BP be ordered to idle its Atlantis oil and gas platform in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico until federal regulators can prove the region's second biggest rig is operating safely.
This could hurt their stock and become a good short. 

Read this ...
William Sharpe, the winner of the 1990 Nobel Prize in Economics's "Time to replace the 4% rule
Retirement-savings withdrawal strategy is flawed, but replacement is complex :" 
 


Its definitely been crazy, in short scalp mode, then flipping to long scalp, but I definitely feel like an Blackfoot with all the scalps I been taking, hang them on my wall. I'm going to continue this tomorrow to protect my cash, until I feel safe enough to overnight anything, which I don't. Take your time when you trade remember its better to be on sidelines wishing you were playing then in the game wishing you were on the sideline. Let the play come to you, do what the situation calls for, if it feels wrong, it is. Commission is always less when you just immediately bail on it other than commission plus whatever you lost, find something else, I have 20 alerts, take your pick...NOVL!