Feb 14 - "VDay Massacre"

Valentine's day is here, moving on...Market as a whole seemed weaker today, shorts were working out, but so were longs, pretty much an awesome day for traders, although it was a little lackluster (it was Monday though). Hate to say it cuz I think we're in desperate need of a market pullback (just a decent correction) and Greece news seems looming a bit more, people paying slightly more attention since they having some snags and Obama's budget got rejected by the GOP as he went to hand it to them, ha.

SGI - So find that spot 9.5 maybe feelr with a target 10.5ish, but I'd rather a washout to 8.5 so 10 could be the short term target, would be easier on the play. Had to go back in time to find any kind of support so its going to be vague. This is what I see...


SGI cont - as you an see each panic sell off has been bot up and ran for 4-5+ points (conservatively). What I'm looking for is the point we see this reversal, so we look for precise points its held or drop'd below and come right back to and held. 9.5 is this spot on the next chart. 8.75, is the first real sign of support, then 8.38, 8.5 falls right in between there (I'm really searching for this reversal point). Just long the wash. 8.58 magic #.

NEP - almost took this short like 99 times today, thank IL for talking me down, I mean I coulda scalped it for some change, but I'm looking for the short and failure, where the real $$ at (thanks bro). Peep this charts then I'll talk more ( if you can't see the chart, right click and view image; its much larger).

NEP cont -  I will take the short at 3.25 if it gets there, doubtful, 3.06 I have an alert set to start into this one and try to work a short average into the high teens and then I'd swing short back to 2ish. If you play like this then know you may not breakdown 3 and you need to have your stop and stick to it, otherwise wait for 3 to fail completely and short it big for 10-30c gain. Could very well bull flag and bust through 3.25, depends on how you want to play the stock and your game plan going into.

I"m going to short 3.25 area hoping for double top and the fact that this stock has pulled the last 4 times 3.25 has been hit, all the baby oils (ROYL, BDCO, MXC) been running on light vol for no reason so I'm short biased. 

 

 

EARNINGS RELATED:

1. UCTT - earnings related here "Q1 guidance very favorable" could very well make a run for the 10 spot, but little hesitant because of the long candle stick wick I drew a line. Mkts strong it'll go.

1. NSIT - had to go back 5 years to find over head, which as you know if its older than 2 years it pretty much doesn't exist, 6 months I say (nowadays). I drew the lines I think it could possibly keep running toward, "strong year-over-year increase in Q4 earnings and an outlook above the Street view." Outlook is always a bullish reason for people to get long. Futures are down abou-30 right now, but all these positive reports coming in  on smaller companies might just change that, MIGHT.

1. RAX - last earnings play then I'll get back to my watches. This stocks at an all time high (virgin territory), at least as far as I could go back, crazy I"m looking at charts back before the financial meltdown like they matter (WTF, and somehow they do). Dont know if you learned to trade during this crisis last 4 years or whatever, but looking back a few years used to matter. idk, I'ma complicated guy. Thinking long is the play first , then the stock magnets back towards 50. On the short side you got a good 46 area swing, but this is thinking weeks ahead. 

REGN - "raised sales guidance" has been on a huge run 116 had sell off written all over it today, check tomorrow for similar top, if sellers step back in.
IRBT - as you know I Like this one long, but I wish it would wash out more before I get long, 25 needs to crack so we can make some money on the upside.
FTNT - love the run to new 52 week high, 28.6.


WTW - brought it back on scan because I think its getting top heavy up here at 77, 78, 79.5 to be specific, been easy to spot a decent short set up on it and ride if for 50c+.

its getting top heavy last time it did this it parabolic'd  then came down hard. Charles Barkley ain't enough to keep hope alive even if he was just on SNL a few weeks ago!

BWLD - this is what we call a rounding top short with a tight stop, you know its parabolic'd, it needs a pull back to crack 84, it barely held on the other day. Shouldn't be up here, sheep buy up here.

TUESDAY, Feb. 14
Extended-Hours Earnings: ACIW, AEY, ACAS, ARB, ACGL, AGII, AVEO, AVP, BOBE, BWA, CPLA, CTCH, SCOR, CW, CYNO, ECHO, FLDM, FTI, FONR, FOSL, HCP, HSP, HITT, INWK, IOSP, NSP, JCOM, LCAV, MMC, MASI, MET, OMC, ASGN, PEET, PWAV, QBAK, QSFT, SB, SAPE, SPAR, GT, UTHR, VMI, VAL, VNDA, VIAS, WPI, WTW, XPNT, ZBRA, ZIP, ZNGA.
Economic Data: 8:30 a.m. Retail Sales; Import/Export Prices; 10 a.m. Business Inventories.