Miles J. Stoner, @StockHollywood

Dallas, Texas

2.14.2012

Feb 15 - Wed. "Up, Up & Away"

We fly high, no lie, you know this, ballin'!  Futures are up 60+, looking strong into tomorrow. Afraid to say it, but your market is going to go higher as long as there are more buyers than sellers (makes cents right). So why have we grinded for ~2 months with essentially no pullback? Well, we got the Europe mess completely solved and all of a sudden we have no involvement with them (sarcastic), although Greece deal should be priced in, considering "the grind," so what then we go higher when the deals inked? More likely we sell off because we've run up on the fact that its will be finalized. China saying they will help out all the other problems in Europe, i.e. Italy - logically the next one up and since China is so trustworthy, yeah I'd be bullish from here.
Even in March 2011 we needed a break from these levels.

FOSL - Its on my mind, is it on yours, hope so cause this thing is defying gravity at the moment. Why?
  • Fourth-quarter profit rose to $117.9 million, or $1.87 per share (TickerSpy)
  • Revenue rose 19% to $830.8 million. Analysts had expected EPS of $1.76 on sales of $842.3 million.
  • So expectation was $1.76 v. $1.87 on eps, which is pretty strong.
  • And revenue was $831 million total was short of the $841 million that analysts had estimated (dailyfinance)
That daily finance link above wrote this, which I agree with:

"Now what: Guidance wasn't overly bullish either. For the first quarter, the company sees EPS between $0.90 and $0.91, which is solidly below Wall Street estimates of $0.98. For the full year, the company projected per-share profit of $5.40 to $5.50, which, at the midpoint, is a penny above analysts' current view.
In all, it certainly wasn't a bad report from Fossil, and in a tough retail environment, it's encouraging that management's guidance basically lines up with the expectations that were already out there. However, the extremely strong market reaction today does have me shaking my head a bit."
 
I took this a step further and shorted the stock, too early as it ripped into close, momentum caught this one and I think former runner was in alot of people's heads and I'm getting killed as of now, but I'm swinging short. As you can see each parabolic pulled back, next day or soon,  put my $ where my mouth is here so looking for pullback again.

"Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Fossil is outperform, with an average price target of $112.10." (msnbc) after all the craziness calms down I think the stock pulls back to 110 or lower.

Crazy to see all these companies spending millions of dollars and pumping their companies, like JCP just to name one, becuase people about to get their income tax checks back, lmao.
Rome wasn't build in a day and "
1:46:09 PM Xtraderr FOSL will top out and fade/ consolidate like every other stock
1:46:42 PM MilesJStoner Xtraderr: FOSL will top out and fade/ consolidate like every other stock - couldn't of said it betr myself


ZNGA - Despite the downside move Tuesday night, there was significant upside liquidity that rolled into the shares off the low of 12.78 to 13.40, a potential near-term base support for longs to watch and perhaps catch some lift back into the mid- to higher-13s.


HIG - buyers stepped in around 20 - 20.5ish and should catch support tomorrow, is a swing long.


KORS - related to FOSL a bit here, but I dont think this holds. I'm short biased on any type of pop, feeler then add size once it feels like its done setting new highs.

KORS cont - let it settle down, my only advice, but I'd be shorting this pos soon.


SGI - long bias, but let it slowly give up those 9's and panic drop again, then take it...still haven't got their investor relations guy on the phone yet. More to come.