Miles J. Stoner, @StockHollywood

Dallas, Texas

2.02.2012

STX - My Short Swing Trade Argument

STX - Action is to short the 26 fail or the mini-parabolic over 26 and swing it. Keep in mind there is no overhead resistance because this stock blew through 52'.(this is if you want to just day trade the stock.)


Only problem is that they didn't suffer from the floods, other companies did and as these other companies "faster recovery from Thailand Floods, " STX will loose market share.
  • Matter of fact their main competition WDC, which is who they stole mkt share from and has allowed their company to run 200% since the floods hit, just had earnings.  WDC's Horrific Earnings
  • BUT, BUT, BUT "The company now believes its manufacturing capacity will be back to pre-flood capabilities in the quarter ending September 2012." (http://prntscr.com/5tot9)
    • I'm thinking sooner than that considering how fast they've got it to this point.
Who are they and what do they do?
Seagate Technology Public Limited Company designs, manufactures, markets, and sells hard disk drives for the enterprise, client compute, and client non-compute market applications in the United States and internationally. The companys products are used in enterprise servers; mainframes and workstations; desktop and notebook computers; digital video recorders; personal data backup systems; portable external storage systems; and digital media systems. It also offers data storage services for small- to medium-sized businesses, including online backup, data protection, and recovery solutions; and ships external backup storage solutions under the Free Agent Go and Free Agent Go Flex product lines. Seagate Technology sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

FACT: They've made a run from 9 to 26+ in 20wks, thats 100 trading days, minus about 10-15 holidays we took off over Thanksgiving, Christmas, MLK Day, etc. Thats around a 2% gain each day.


Why are they up, why have they run so strong and long?
  1. Thailand Floods. "shares soared to a four- year high Wednesday as the hard-disk drive maker benefits from its rivals' manufacturing troubles in Thailand and sets itself up for potential competitive gains over the longer term."
  2. They are the only company able to meet any kind of hard drive order so of course "Seagate shares jump 11.4% after profits tripled, 02/01 08:57 AM."
I continue to hear...
            "Positive outlooks are conditional on fiscal policy in payroll taxes and unemployment insurance benefits and upon the easing of the European debt situation. A repeat of volatility experienced in 2011 is likely in 2012, as perceptions about the strength of the U.S. economy and the euro zone will vary over time as events unfold."
---imo, this just means that if Europe has some bad news our stock price will suffer, but this is the same for the rest of the stocks in the market so, not much meat on the bone, although they repeated it 2wice. 

Why am I so bearish on this stock, why is it a short?
  1. As companies like WDC and its other Competitors (link) fix thier Thailand temporary deals with STX it will decline, maybe faster than we think if...
  2. Their President & CEO, Stephen J. Luczo, just sold 4,547,260 million shares 10K filing
    • Sold them 1/30/2012, as a million upgrades and price increases and volume increases. Why? The Stocks next big move is down, its starting to top, moving sideways, showing all the signs of a move and that move is down.
This is the chart that I like on this stock and why I am swing trading it, I can't reiterate SWING trading, everyone wants to argue schematics when you've held the stock for 3 hours and its not worked out. I got into this with a feelr (alerted realtime) and plan to build a short position (hopefully IB opens up some shares at some opportune times) cuz my average isn't wonderful and my share size is worthless, but my vision is what matters to me, disagree all you want. I did chat a favor saying I'm going to write a smash piece about STX and release it (yes, similar to pump and dumps) difference is, I'm not front loading, lying, I'm realtime, I have a profit.ly, I am real time, I'm letting you know ahead of time what I'm doing and this isn't a penny stock, this a real company, it won't one day just not exist, it doesn't have a million dollar marketing scheme behind pumping it up, it has legit reasons so its very disrespectful to even put me and what I do in the same category, these are more like seeking-alpha articles than promoters. I don't need your help, I don't need anything from you, I'm doing this to try and help, which is what I enjoy doing, helping so when you doubt me or call me out of my name I will show you the last time I wrote an article (DMND, 27.75 LONG) you'd still be up, not like penny's where they die and never come back, I believe in what I'm doing, if you don't then dont look, dont care, don't pay attention to me, worry about yourself. Specially when your all talk and no action.
  • Could I be wrong? of course, but I'm arguing a position here, agree or disagree, but keep it professional.