Miles J. Stoner, @StockHollywood

Dallas, Texas

5.20.2012

May 21 - Mon. "Fart Suckerturd"

UCO - stalking oil turnaround, crude oil futures were down into the 90's for crude oil itself, which is what you want to watch to see if it is going to bounce, I think this is related to Greece and the market being in bear mode right now, we may see this bottom behavior for a few weeks, I think early July we are going to get a turnaround and run into November elections.
VELT - 6 is the bottom spot, this won't be a short because the news is bs, the company beat on earnings, if anything it will bull flag, long bias on dips, keep in mind if it does look weak could head back down to 6 and crack, based on the #'s alone, I'm not thinking this is a good candidate for that though and I have a long bias here. Certain stocks we would normally let it make its bounce and short for the move back down to 6, but there is disconnect on the e/r, which is why I believe it is not a short. We'll see though. In all honesty this is one we see sell off from before its e/r then work its way back up to 9 and move higher. Big defenses out there. No position myself.
ANR - coal is getting killed lately, this stock is on a move down from 55 to 11 in the past year. Prolly fairly priced at 13 and half. I expect a bounce in coals soon, just like we got in natty gas.
LVS - love the downtrend forming here, steady and ready for a bounce. Since April 12th, 2012 @ 62.09 (52's) this stock has downtrended 44.5 has good support, I suspect 45 will put up a good fight, look for the sideways price action thats already occurring now to take long any gearing/perking. It really tried to hold 51.5, which is where I think it will bounce to. Look for sideways price action. Effective June 4. Sands China will join Hang Seng Index in China.
FB - opened up at 42, quick pop to 45 and then when it dropped to 38 traders say the IPO's lead underwriter Morgan Stanley stepped in to prevent the price from slipping below the IPO level. FB trades at 100x earnings, but is this value warranted? Companies like AMZN trade 80x e/r, LNKD even higher than FB, but FB true value is in this belief that many analysts believe the huge store of personal information gives Facebook (FB:$38.2318,$0.2318,0.61%) an advantage that Google and other cannot match. Skeptics, though, note that only a small percentage of Facebook users respond to advertising on the site. Google (GOOG:$599.82,00$-23.23,00-3.73%) retains a big advantage in that regard, because advertising related to specific Internet searches is by nature far more relevant and thus more valuable. With that being said, look where GOOG is trading at, only thing separating the two is time spent in the public arena. Plainly, FB will go!
LNKD -Hate this company, I think it should be at $40/share. One day a notorious short seller will kill this company, mark my words. "What has changed in the world since April? We went from hearing a constant refrain that the world is awash in money and markets must go higher to hearing nobody wants to take any risk ... All in a week," said Peter Cecchini, global head of institutional equity derivatives at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in New York. Its Greece defaulting and possibly exiting the euro and Spain's troubled banking system. With that being said, LNKD is a good short play on moves over 100, then let it crack below 100 and stay there.
UNG - natty gas starting to come back, super beat chart here. from 50 to 14 this past year, the bounce off 14 has been steady back to 20 test, I think we get a pull from 20 though good for a 1-2pt trade for now.
SVVC - 18.42 is support anything below I'll be looking to build into a long position. Do some due diligence on this one, interesting how much the company is worth in cash alone, well above their current trading value. If you add in their FB shares, Twitter shares, YELP shares, etc. we are looking at a considerably higher stock value than is currently trading at.

MONDAY, May 21
Extended-Hours Earnings: CPB, GAIN, HAST, INFU, KKD, LOW, NDSN, TECD, URBN, ZOOM.
Economic Data: None.
TUESDAY, May 22
Extended-Hours Earnings: ADI, AZO, AVGO, BBY, CSUN, CNTF, CNET, CISG, PSS, CPWR, CBRL, DELL (DELL:$14.74,00$-0.20,00-1.34%) , DSW, DY, EXPR, GES, HEI, MDT, NAVR, NTAP, PETM, RL, TTWO, WTSLA, WSM.
Economic Data: 10 a.m. Existing Home Sales.
WEDNESDAY, May 23
Extended-Hours Earnings: AFCE, AEO, AINV, ATAI, BIG, HPQ, HRL, LTXC, NTAP, P, PRXI, PVH, SMTC, SIGM, STP, SCMR, SNPS, TOL, TSL, ZLC.
Economic Data: 7 a.m. MBA Mortgage Index; 10 a.m. New Home Sales; FHFA Housing Price Index; 10:30 a.m. Crude Inventories.
THURSDAY, May 24
Extended-Hours Earnings: COST, EJ, FLO, FRED, HNZ, MIK, MNRO, PDCO, RUE, PAY, UPI, VSNT.
Economic Data: 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims; Durable Orders.
FRIDAY, May 25
Extended-Hours Earnings: CRMT.
Economic Data: 9:55 a.m. Michigan Sentiment.